Post by aar on Apr 15, 2009 23:40:24 GMT -5
HYPOTHESIS
Is getting the #1 overall draft pick necessarily the best pick?
FINDINGS
2001
#1 Pick: Tony Parker
Best Pick: Tony Parker
Parker was an excellent player who was the top player in the class alongside Tyson Chandler. Parker gets the nod.
2002
#1 Pick: Yao Ming
Best Pick: Nenad Krstic (#8)
Krstic has had and continues to have a stellar career.
2003
#1 Pick: LeBron James
Best Pick: LeBron James
James still kicks ass. One of the best players ever.
2004
#1 Pick: Dwight Howard
Best Pick: Dwight Howard
Al Jefferson had an excellent career as well, but nowhere near as good as Howard.
2005
#1 Pick: Chris Paul
Best Pick: Andrew Bynum (#4)
Paul had an excellent career, but Bynum has been absolutely incredible and has lead multiple teams to championships.
2006
#1 Pick: Brandon Roy
Best Pick: Brandon Roy
Roy has had an excellent career. LaMarcus Aldridge was also excellent, but Roy gets the nod.
2007
#1 Pick: Greg Oden
Best Pick: Kevin Durant (#2)
Oden was an all-star, Durant was a superstar.
2008
#1 Pick: Derrick Rose
Best Pick: Derrick Rose
Rose is also a superstar and the rest of this draft was hit or miss.
2009
#1 Pick: DeMar DeRozan
Best Pick: Brandon Jennings (#2)
Both became great scorers, but Jennings was a better one. Honorable mention to James Harden
2010
#1 Pick: Ricky Rubio
Best Pick: DeJuan Blair (#15)
Rubio is an excellent point guard and defender, but Blair was an absolute beast!
2011
#1 Pick: Renardo Sidney
Best Pick: Derrick Favors (#3)
I like Favors more than Sidney and Wall - just personal preference. Everyone in the top-3 are of pretty equal talent.
2012
#1 Pick: Austin Rivers
Best Pick: Austin Rivers
A lot of good prospects at the top, but none better than Rivers.
2013
#1 Pick: LaQuinton Ross
Best Pick: LaQuinton Ross
Among the best ratings in league history and an absolute monster.
2014
#1 Pick: Dennis Dunagan
Best Pick: Dennis Dunagan
Dunagan gets the nod over Manchu Chau
2015
#1 Pick: Devereaux St. Cloud
Best Pick: Nathaniel Davidson (#4) / Duck Young-Bak (#2)
I really don't know who to choose, but it's not St. Cloud. This was a great draft.
2016
#1 Pick: Iarare Ballantyne
Best Pick: Azuolas Kanauskus (#2)
I like Kanauskus over Ballantyne, Taylor and McGahee. Either way, Ballantyne is fourth on that list.
2017
#1 Pick: Ricardinho
Best Pick: Marcus Bigelow (#12)
Bigelow is the second biggest draft steal on this list at the 12 spot.
2018
#1 Pick: Leon Camby
Best Pick: Austin Brock (#5)
Close call - Sembene will eventually be the best in this class.
From 2018 onwards, it's still up in the air.
RESULTS
9 out of 18 drafts = 50%
CONCLUSION
This study is conclusive evidence that the person who has the #1 overall pick gets the best player in the draft 50% of the time.
Is getting the #1 overall draft pick necessarily the best pick?
FINDINGS
2001
#1 Pick: Tony Parker
Best Pick: Tony Parker
Parker was an excellent player who was the top player in the class alongside Tyson Chandler. Parker gets the nod.
2002
#1 Pick: Yao Ming
Best Pick: Nenad Krstic (#8)
Krstic has had and continues to have a stellar career.
2003
#1 Pick: LeBron James
Best Pick: LeBron James
James still kicks ass. One of the best players ever.
2004
#1 Pick: Dwight Howard
Best Pick: Dwight Howard
Al Jefferson had an excellent career as well, but nowhere near as good as Howard.
2005
#1 Pick: Chris Paul
Best Pick: Andrew Bynum (#4)
Paul had an excellent career, but Bynum has been absolutely incredible and has lead multiple teams to championships.
2006
#1 Pick: Brandon Roy
Best Pick: Brandon Roy
Roy has had an excellent career. LaMarcus Aldridge was also excellent, but Roy gets the nod.
2007
#1 Pick: Greg Oden
Best Pick: Kevin Durant (#2)
Oden was an all-star, Durant was a superstar.
2008
#1 Pick: Derrick Rose
Best Pick: Derrick Rose
Rose is also a superstar and the rest of this draft was hit or miss.
2009
#1 Pick: DeMar DeRozan
Best Pick: Brandon Jennings (#2)
Both became great scorers, but Jennings was a better one. Honorable mention to James Harden
2010
#1 Pick: Ricky Rubio
Best Pick: DeJuan Blair (#15)
Rubio is an excellent point guard and defender, but Blair was an absolute beast!
2011
#1 Pick: Renardo Sidney
Best Pick: Derrick Favors (#3)
I like Favors more than Sidney and Wall - just personal preference. Everyone in the top-3 are of pretty equal talent.
2012
#1 Pick: Austin Rivers
Best Pick: Austin Rivers
A lot of good prospects at the top, but none better than Rivers.
2013
#1 Pick: LaQuinton Ross
Best Pick: LaQuinton Ross
Among the best ratings in league history and an absolute monster.
2014
#1 Pick: Dennis Dunagan
Best Pick: Dennis Dunagan
Dunagan gets the nod over Manchu Chau
2015
#1 Pick: Devereaux St. Cloud
Best Pick: Nathaniel Davidson (#4) / Duck Young-Bak (#2)
I really don't know who to choose, but it's not St. Cloud. This was a great draft.
2016
#1 Pick: Iarare Ballantyne
Best Pick: Azuolas Kanauskus (#2)
I like Kanauskus over Ballantyne, Taylor and McGahee. Either way, Ballantyne is fourth on that list.
2017
#1 Pick: Ricardinho
Best Pick: Marcus Bigelow (#12)
Bigelow is the second biggest draft steal on this list at the 12 spot.
2018
#1 Pick: Leon Camby
Best Pick: Austin Brock (#5)
Close call - Sembene will eventually be the best in this class.
From 2018 onwards, it's still up in the air.
RESULTS
9 out of 18 drafts = 50%
CONCLUSION
This study is conclusive evidence that the person who has the #1 overall pick gets the best player in the draft 50% of the time.